Some fans wonder what the team would have looked like if they did sign this player, or didn’t trade that player. However, it’s not as easy as saying that if Chicago had drafted Patrick Mahomes than the Bears would have won two Super Bowls. Because it’s not that simple. It never has been. So let’s look at a couple of major what ifs across sports and see why they’re important to ask, but probably wouldn’t have changed things the way fans might want.
What if the Chicago Bears selected Patrick Mahomes?
In 2017, the Chicago Bears had the 3rd overall
pick in the draft. On draft day, the Bears traded picks 3, 67 and 111 in the
2017 draft and third round pick in 2018 to the San Francisco 49ers to move up
to the 2 spot. At number 2 overall, the Bears selected quarterback Mitchell
Trubisky.
Later that night, the Kansas City Chiefs moved their pick (27)
and pick 91, as well as a 2019 first to Buffalo in exchange for the Bills’ 10th
overall pick. With that pick, the Chiefs then selected Mahomes.
Since that draft, Mahomes has been to the AFC Championship
in five straight seasons, won the MVP twice, won two Super Bowls and was Super
Bowl MVP each time. Trubisky was replaced in Chicago by Justin Fields and now
backs up Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh.
But what if Chicago had selected Mahomes 2nd
overall? If Chicago does that, Mahomes probably doesn’t sit for the majority of
his rookie season, as he did in KC. Instead, with Mike Glennon having started
only 4 games, Mahomes is likely thrown into a starting role sometime in the
middle of the season. Mahomes doesn’t have offensive-minded head coach Andy
Reid to draw up plays for him. Instead, he plays initially for John Fox. He
doesn’t have weapons like Kareem Hunt (1,327 rushing yards, 455 receiving
yards, 11 total TDs), Tyreek Hill (1,183 receiving yards, 59 rushing yards, 7
TDs) and Travis Kelce (1,038 receiving yards and 8 TD). Granted, those numbers
came with Alex Smith running the offense. In Chicago, Mahomes would have had
Jordan Howard (1,122 rushing yards, 125 receiving yards, 9 TDs), Josh Bellamy
and Kendall Wright (combined 990 receiving yards and 2 TDs), and Dion Sims (180
receiving yards and 1 TD). While Howard had a good year running, the weapons
around Mahomes would have been worse than what he had in Kansas City.
Yes, Mahomes is a better athlete and quarterback than Mike
Glennon and Mitch Trubisky combined. In Chicago, however, he might not have the
chance to reach that potential given that he would have had a different
offensive philosophy and less talented (with all due respect) skill players.
Everybody’s number probably look better with Mahomes, but can he lead the Bears
to the conference championship game with that offensive as it was constructed?
A better what if might be to ask what might have happened if
Chicago stays at 3. San Francisco was not likely to draft a QB anyway. If
Trubisky does go, they could have selected Mahomes at 3 while keeping their
other picks. Pick #67 ended up with New Orleans. They selected Alvin Kamara.
Pick 111, ended up with Seattle. They selected S Tedric Thompson. The 2018
pick—which could have ended up a different selection because of the 2017 Bears’
record—was used to select LB Fred Warner. While Thompson isn’t quite the same
caliber as the others, the Bears could have, in theory, selected Trubisky or
Mahomes at 3 as well as Alvin Kamara and, a year later, Fred Warner. Still,
that may not have been enough to win a Super Bowl, let alone two, but the Bears
would have arguably been better positioned.
Conclusion: the Bears chose wrong, but that doesn’t mean
they’d have two Super Bowls right now.
What if the Miami Dolphins sign Drew Brees?
This one is near and dear to my heart as I am a Miami
Dolphins fan. In 2006, the then- San Diego Chargers were ready to give the
starting position to Phillip Rivers. Drew Brees was coming off a shoulder
injury, which left some teams with red flags, including the Dolphins. Not
wanting to meet the amount of money Brees was seeking, in part because of
questions about the injury, Miami opted to wait and see if the price came down.
The New Orleans Saints took advantage and signed Brees to a six-year $60
million deal (which sounds low in 2023 money, but was a pretty good deal in
2006). The Dolphins felt more confident in the injury report for Minnesota
Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper and traded a second-round pick to
Minnesota for Culpepper.
Culpepper started just four games for Miami, going 1-3 while
throwing for 929 yards, two TDs and three interceptions. In 2006, Brees started
all 16 games, went 10-6 and threw for 4,418 yards, 26 TDs and 11 interceptions.
Brees became a staple in New Orleans, leading the team to their first, and so
far only, Super Bowl in the 2009 season, and led the Saints for 15 years. Brees
is a sure-fire Hall of Famer in 2025 when he becomes eligible.
Miami Dolphins head coach Nick Saban would leave the
Dolphins after the 2006 season (his second as head coach) to become the head
coach at Alabama. (That seems to have worked out for him). He said in a 2021
article with Sports Illustrated that if the Dolphins had signed Brees, he
likely would have stayed, but failing to do so was a big factor into his
leaving the team[1].
While that is the case, Saban is not the same coach as then-Saints coach Sean
Payton.
Much like the Mahomes scenario above, the players in Miami
were different. The training staff was different. The coaching staff was
different. While it’s easy to say Brees moves into that role and is still a
Hall of Fame quarterback, it’s important to note that perhaps his injury isn’t
as well treated long-term with the Miami staff, or it’s at least different. The
offense may not be as personalized as Payton was able to do. Maybe Miami isn’t
as patient. Regardless, while Brees couldn’t have been worse than Culpepper,
it’s far from a guarantee that he has the same success in South Beach.
Conclusion: the Dolphins chose wrong, but it doesn’t mean
they would have won big.
What if the Portland Trailblazers selected Michael
Jordan?
The Houston Rockets selected Hakeem Olajuwon first overall
in 1984. He went on to play in 1,238 games, score 26,946 points and collected
13,748 rebounds over 44,222 minutes played across 18 seasons. He is an MVP, won
two NBA titles with the Rockets and was MVP for both of those, and is a Hall of
Famer. While Michael Jordan is widely considered the best player of all time,
there is no reason to question if this was a good pick or not.
The Portland Trailblazers selected Sam Bowie second. He
totaled 511 games played over 10 seasons. He played 14,098 minutes and scored
5,564 points and collected 3,845 rebounds. A respectable career, for sure.
Michael Jordan was selected by the Chicago Bears with the
third pick. Over 15 seasons between the Bulls and the Wizards, MJ played 41,011
minutes, scored 32,292 points and collected 6,672 points. He won six NBA
Championships, twice winning three in a row. He was Finals MVP for all six. He
won five NBA MVPs. He is a Hall of Famer. He is widely regarded as the best
player ever. If not the best, he is top three.
So what if Portland landed MJ?
Chicago didn’t yet have the players that often come to mind
when thinking of MJ’s championship years. Phil Jackson wasn’t the coach yet.
Scottie Pippen was drafted in 1987. Steve Kerr doesn’t become a Bull until
1993. Dennis Rodman doesn’t become a Bull until 1995. So while MJ had a big
part in the turnaround, the core pieces were not yet in place.
Portland, however, had one big core player in place at that
time that may have helped elevate MJ to even greater heights sooner. They had
Clyde Drexler. Clyde didn’t help win a title until 1995 when paired with
Houston and Hakeem Olajuwon. The big issue there, however? They technically
played the same position. However, at 6’7”, Drexler could have played a hybrid
role and Portland could have made it work.
If Jack Ramsay doesn’t work out with the Trailblazers with
Clyde and MJ, Phil Jackson could have joined them instead of Chicago. Steve
Kerr and Dennis Rodman could also end up in Portland as easily as they did
Chicago. Scottie Pippen may not make it there, depending on how the draft
shakes out in 1987, but any big piece from Chicago could just as easily have
ended up in Portland.
So, that means this is a huge swing and a miss, right?
Not necessarily. If Portland doesn’t unlocked and allow
Michael Jordan to become MJ, he may not have dominated the basketball world in
the mid-1990s. But, for all we know, MJ becomes injury prone in Portland.
Conclusion: While nothing is guaranteed, Portland probably
should have drafted MJ.
These are just three examples of famous what-ifs in sports.
There are many others we can and probably will discuss in future posts.
While it’s fun to play out how things would change, it’s not
as simple as assuming that the results would automatically transfer. In two of
the three instances explored here, the result likely don’t mirror the way it
was.
Sometimes, fans get caught up in the what-ifs, when we
should focus on what’s next for our teams.
[1] https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/coach-nick-saban-discusses-his-departure-from-miami-dolphins
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