Wednesday, March 29, 2023

A Love Letter to Baseball

Oh, how I’ve missed you.

You’ve been gone for months.

Sure, that was that two-week Classic affair with the World.

About two months ago, you started poking your head in and out just to get the lay of the land and testing a few things.  

But tomorrow? Tomorrow you’ll come back in full force. Ready to stay. Every bit of it will matter. It will be the start of a love story that will last eight or nine months.

Fortunately, I know that I am not alone in the strong affections I hold for you. Unfortunately, I know that the number of those that share my passion for you is dwindling. I know that there isn’t much that either of us can do about it. I know, however, that I can try to make them see. I can try to explain to them why you matter so.

In a nutshell, because everything these days needs to be bite-sized, you are the perfect metaphor for life itself.

No one life can be lived independently of another. There are times when it takes collaboration between two, three, or even more, to achieve an objective.

There are times when we are the stars of our own world. We are the main character. Everything revolves around us. Our success is a forgone conclusion.

There are times when we can’t figure out how we came to cameo in this series. We can identify who the protagonist is and we feel like maybe we should keep our head down, not get in the way.

There are times we are doing okay, but it goes unnoticed. So we push ourselves to do phenomenal. We fail. We get in our heads. We push too hard. We disappear for a bit. We need to take time to work on ourselves.

We try too hard, sometimes. Just when things get rolling well, we feel the need to make everything better. We push ourselves to capitalize on everything and we get frustrated when the success is a little thing, rather than everything.

Baseball, you are the perfect caricature of life.

Sometimes, we can be the best player on the planet, but without the right support, and the right amount of support, we see only individual success, but little glory. We cannot point to the major wins, the championships.

Sometimes, our production is middling. Sure, it’s consistent, but it’s not stellar. It’s enough, but it makes the difference. Those around us depend on the reliability, the foundation of greater success.

There are stretches of time where everything comes at us seemingly nonstop. Every pitch is hit right to us. Every ground ball and line drive and pop fly are in the area of the world we inhabit.

There are days, weeks, and sometimes longer where we see little to no action at all, despite showing up every day, ready and prepared.

There are times when we need to take a back seat. To let someone else take the spotlight. To support them.

Even on the bench, we must be ready if we need to pinch hit or get that one out.

There are moments when our bodies need to heal, and we have to take the time, even if we know that it means we risk losing our spot.

We have experiences where it just may not be the right fit. It’s the wrong position. It’s the wrong team. It’s the wrong city or circumstance or coach. A change of scenery can take us from good to great to excellent.

There will be observers that praise us. There will be those that doubt us. Those that mock us. Those that want to see us fail. We have to tune them all out. The good with the bad.

At different points in our lives, we are the batter striking out or the pitcher get the strike out. We give up home runs. We hit home runs. We extend a play. We get caught stretching a single into a double. We ground into double plays, we finish double plays, we start double plays with acrobatic pizzaz that wows even the most ardent hater. We are in the thick of the game and we are watching from the dugout.

We each have a role in life and that role changes. It may change daily. It may change weekly. It may take years or be season to season or inning to inning. But we’re not alone. We’re never alone. There is always a teammate or eight or 25 trying to make sure they are in the right position for what their role is.

Most importantly, we win together. No victory is isolated. No victory is solo. It is a team effort.

Thank you, baseball, for reminding us that life is a team sport.

We’re excited to see you again tomorrow.

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Wednesday, March 22, 2023

Passed Time We Stopped the Pastime from Passing By

Here’s a controversial hot take: this year’s World Baseball Classic was amazing.

After their semifinal loss to Japan, Mexico’s manager, Benji Gil, said “Japan moved on, but the world of baseball won today.”[1]

It did. It most definitely did.

Trea Turner made a name for himself. Over six games in the WBC, Turner hit five homeruns (most in the WBC), drove in 11 runs (second only to Masataka Yoshida’s 13 for Japan) and had an average of .391[2].  

Nolan Arendao hit .385, Mookie Betts hit 3.13, Randy Arozaren hit .450, Francisco Lindo hit .450, Yoan Moncada and Shohei Ohtani each hit .435, just to name a few[3]. Ohtani also started three games and won both, got the save in the championship round (we’ll come back to that), lead the WBC in innings pitched (9.2), had a 1.86 ERA and tied for third in strikeouts with 11[4]. Did I mention that Ohtani also hit a homerun in the championship game?

Plus, what a way to wrap everything up. Japan led 3-2. Japan took Ohtani out of the field and put him on the mound. He did walk his first batter, but then got Mookie Betts to ground into a double play. One out away from their third WBC title, Japan’s Shohei Ohtani faced the USA’s Mike Trout. Or should I say that Los Angeles Angels pitcher/DH Shohei Ohtani faced Los Angeles Angels RF Mike Trout. Teammates battled it out with the world watching. Ohtani struck out Trout to clinch the title. It was theatrical. Hollywood would drooled over such a script.

The WBC featured teams representing 20 countries, originally broken into four pools with five teams each, and played games in Taichung, Taiwan; Tokyo, Japan; Phoenix, Arizona (USA); and Miami, FL (USA). The tournament began on March 8 and wrapped up on March 21, a grand total of 14 days. Two weeks.

In 2022, the MLB Playoffs began on October 7 and concluded with Game 5 of the World Series on November 5[5]. That’s a total of 30 days. A full month. Yet, there were only 12 teams in that tournament.

All of the goodwill, hype, praise, and excitement coming out of the WBC and heading into opening day of the 2023 baseball season begs the question: can MLB take advantage of this momentum and keep it going?

This year, there will be a huge new rule in baseball: a pitch clock. The idea of this is to speed up the games. Early signs in Spring Training point to this new rule working. As of March 9, the average time it took to complete a spring training game had dropped roughly 25 minutes from 2022 to 2023[6] (from 3 hours and 1 minute in 2022 to 2 hours and 36 minutes in 2023). That’s nearly a half hour trimmed from every baseball game. When one of the stereotypical complaints about the sport is that it is “too slow” a pitch clock saving nearly a half hour per game undoubtedly digs into that concern.

It is important to note, however, that the WBC did not use a pitch clock. Games lasted, on average, 3 hours and 16 minutes[7]. They also did not implement the new MLB rule banning extreme shifts (two infielders must be on either side of second base at all times). It is believed that the championship game could be the most-watched baseball game ever played[8].

Okay, well, that’s a little misleading as many of those viewers will be in Japan. Still, MLB has seen declines, so lessons need to be learned.

If MLB wants to capitalize on the hype, one way may be to look at tweaking the playoff format.

As of 2022, MLB features six teams in each league. There are the three division winners, the top two each get a bye, and three wild card teams. The Wild Card round is a best-of-three series, the divisional round is best-of-five, and the league championship and World Series are each best-of-seven. With MLB looking at possible expansion[9], a shake up to a pool system may make sense.

MLB currently has 30 teams. If they were to expand to 32 as is suggested/rumored, expanding the playoffs to 16 teams would allow for four pools with four teams each. I know, it sounds odd to have half the league make the playoffs, but the NBA has 20 of the 30 teams make the playoffs (counting the play-in tournament), the NHL has 16 of 32 teams make the Stanley Cups Finals, and the NFL has 14 of 32 (which is currently a higher percentage of teams than MLB with 43.75% of NFL teams making the playoffs to currently just 40% of MLB teams). So, instantly, more cities get involved in the push for the title.

By utilizing pool play, also, cities could bid to host, much like they do for the WBC, the Super Bowl, and March Madness. If the top two teams from each Pool advance to the quarterfinals, we could keep the idea of series to a degree. The Divisional Round could become three games, the ALCS and NLCS could become just five games, and we can keep the World Series at seven. Though it would be fun to see single-elimination once Pool play has ended, it would be hard to call the final the World Series. Perhaps, you call the whole tournament that, like with March Madness in the NCAA, but even just shortening the other series will add emphasis to the best-of-seven for it all.

Whether MLB considers this, let alone implements it, is totally up to them. Regardless of how, it is vital to the future of baseball, especially in the US, to capitalize on the momentum of the WBC. Otherwise, the Great American Pastime will pass us by.


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Tuesday, March 14, 2023

A A Wrong

Full disclosure: it is 2:52 p.m. on Tuesday, March 14, 2023 as I begin to write this blog entry. I am not going to be in a position to write this post on Wednesday, March 15, when it will be uploaded. This is important to note at the beginning, because there is a key factor of this piece that – while it doesn’t change the overarching point I am to make – may mitigate the extent.  Also, I hate the Jets. Hate them. They are my least favorite football team.

The point: I don’t like Aaron Rodgers.

I never really have.

I never really will.

It’s hard to ignore some of the statistics, such as four NFL MVP awards. Or the dominance over the division.

But I have never found Aaron Rodgers likeable. I will acknowledge the statistics, a level of respect to be sure. I don’t, however, revere him. He does not come close to the same reverie that quarterbacks such as Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Eli Manning and other quarterbacks that have occupied the NFL during his time.

I think a lot of it is bias. I could argue about his injury history. It hasn’t plagued him much in recent years, and the QB1 of my favorite team is injured more than he’s healthy. I could argue he doesn’t play hurt. Yet, that would be an abject falsehood. He literally battled through injury last season. I could point to his admitted use of ayahuasca. That would also be hypocritical as there are many celebrities that I idolize whom have admitted to drug use. I have many friends who have dabbled. It doesn’t really bother me. He’s even done commercials as so many other QBs, and athletes in general, have.

So what is it? Why do I not like Aaron Rodgers?

The easiest thing to point to is happening right now. Rodgers may retire. He may return to the Green Bay Packers. He may agree to let the Packers trade him to the New York Jets. The legal negotiating period for free agents to speak with teams other than the one they played for in 2022 began at 12 p.m. on Monday, March 13. That’s now – at 3:07 p.m. – just over 27 hours ago. He’s not a free agent, so he could have made his decision and communicated it really at any point.

Lamar Jackson, whom we covered in the blog last week, cannot talk to other teams until 4 p.m. on Wednesday, March 16, when the new league year begins. So there won’t be any word on Lamar until at least then, unless he signs a long-term deal with Baltimore in the meantime. What is Aaron’s excuse?

What makes this unthinkable to me is that at least two franchises are in limbo waiting for him. Even more egregious is that, according to multiple reports, he’s told the Jets that if they want him, they should target and preferably acquire WRs Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Odell Beckham Jr., and TE Mercedes Lewis[1]. He’s been teammates with Lazard, Cobb and Lewis.

That narrative runs antithetical to many reports over the last several offseasons. The narrative that Rodgers has been upset because Green Bay didn’t target a WR with a first-round draft pick or sign a big name free agent WR. I supposed OBJ falls into that latter category, but the Jets already have the 2022 offensive rookie of the year in Garrett Wilson. As a rookie in 2022, Wilson put up 1,103 yards and four touchdowns[2] in a Jets offense that saw quarterbacks Zach Wilson (1,688 yards and six TDs in 2022[3]), Mike White (1,192 yards and three TDs in 2022[4]), and Joe Flacco (1,051 yards and five TDs in 2022[5]). That’s a combined 3,931 yards and 14 touchdowns. Garrett Wilson accounted for 28.1% of all passing yards and 28.6% of all receiving touchdowns.

Maybe the fact that the Jets had to rely so heavily on one receiver is part of why Rodgers would want more weapons, and one’s he’s comfortable with, in New York.

Yet, we don’t know for sure Rodgers will accept a trade to New York. If he does, that clears up a lot of space for Green Bay. Not that Green Bay has ever been huge spenders in free agency, the fact that they can’t really pursue players because they don’t know if they’re starting Rodgers of Jordan Love leaves them a little hamstrung. Not to mention the Jets, who are in the market for a veteran starting quarterback. Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo have already both signed with new teams. If Rodgers doesn’t like what the Jets do or don’t do and he either stays in Green Bay or retires, then the Jets may have to turn to options such as Baker Mayfield, Ryan Tannehill, or Jacoby Brisett. Of course, maybe, at 4 p.m. on Wednesday, they reach out to Lamar and pull off that trade instead. The point is, both teams are in limbo waiting for Rodgers to make his proclamation.

Lebron James got a lot of hate when he announced he was taking his talents to South Beach. In part, the heat was for how he announced. Yet, there’s not nearly enough outrage over Rodgers holding two franchises hostage. I can’t help but feel like he enjoys it, too. Leave it to Aaron Rodgers to find a way to make me pity the New York Jets.

Also, if he does come to New York, Miami has Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey, and Javon Holland in our defensive backfield, so good luck.

If he doesn’t, and this pains me to say, I’m sorry to the New York Jets. (Friendly advice, call Lamar).


(Posting at 3:32 p.m. on Tuesday, March 14).

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Wednesday, March 8, 2023

Lamar the Raven: Nevermore?

According to multiple sources, Derek Carr has signed with the New Orleans Saints for four years and $150 million. That breaks down to $37.5 million per year.

According to multiple sources, Daniel Jones has resigned with the New York Giants for four years and $160 million. That breaks down to $40 million per year.

According to multiple sources, Geno Smith has resigned with the Seattle Seahawks for three years and $105 million. That breaks down to $35 million per year.

According to multiple sources, the Baltimore Ravens have placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. Thereby, Jackson can negotiate with other teams. If a team offers, the Ravens can match the deal and, therefore, keep Jackson. If the Ravens decline to match, the new team would have to give two first-round picks to the Ravens. If no deal is reached with the Ravens, or any other team, than the Ravens will have to offer a one-year contract worth $32.416 million[1]. Lamar cannot begin speaking to teams on Monday, March 13.

While Lamar has battled injuries over the last two seasons, starting only 12 games each year, he does have something that neither Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, nor Geno Smith has: an MVP.

Yet, there’s an argument to be made that the Baltimore Ravens will be better off if another team offers a significant deal. That’s not just about me being a fan of an organization that has gone through 23 different starting quarterbacks in the last 20 years, including three last season alone.

To be clear, it is not because Lamar Jackson is a bad player. It’s not because he isn’t capable of leading them to titles. It’s not because the Ravens play in a division with Joe Burrow. It’s all about the money and the scheme. So, let’s look briefly at why the Ravens might want to move on and which teams should be all-in on Lamar.

According to Spotac, the Ravens are currently nearly $8.3 million over the cap for 2023[2]. That’s assuming the $32.416 million from the tag.

I am not Lamar Jackson. I have no idea how much money he might want. I don’t know what his minimum is. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say it’s $47 million, which is a little more than Kyler Murray received in an extension before the 2022 season.

In order to give him that, the Ravens would have to restructure nearly every contract they possibly can. That would means players like Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Mark Andrews and more would likely have to either shift money around or take pay cuts. Ownership can always find a way to provide cash over cap, a way to spread the cap hit into the future while paying more in signing bonuses (for example) now. But this would require a lot of goodwill amongst other players. Other players that will look to Lamar and know that, if not for their sacrifices and willingness, he wouldn’t be there. That’s not necessarily going to cause issues in the locker room, but it could.

But there are additional issues that brings. For example, it definitely hamstrings the organization for any other possible free agents they might want to bring in. So what could happen?

Well, for starters, they could pray a team with cap space offers him something he likes and they get the two first rounders for him. This would give them over $22.6 million in cap space[3], but leave them without a clear starter. That is, unless they believe in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley as a number one. I mean, he was, technically, a pro bowler last year (yikes).

So let’s start with which teams should be out and why.

1.       Buffalo Bills – they have Josh Allen

2.       Cincinnati Bengals – they have Joe Burrow

3.       Kansas City Chiefs – they have Patrick Mahomes

4.       Jacksonville Jaguars – they have Trevor Lawrence

5.       Los Angeles Chargers – they have Justin Herbert

6.       Philadelphia Eagles – they have Jalen Hurtz

      Now let’s look at the teams that are out, but should otherwise be in.

7.    Cleveland Browns – he who shall not be named came at the expense of a lot of draft picks, a fully guaranteed contract over $219 million, and any integrity the ownership group and organization had.

8.    Denver Broncos – Russell Wilson cost the Broncos a ton of picks and a lot of money. While Lamar would be better than Wilson, it would be next to impossible to move on from Russ so soon (hence why they fired their coach instead)

9.       Los Angeles Rams – Matthew Stafford is getting up in football years and injuries caught up to him last season. He may come back healthy and ready to go in 2023, but Lamar has a higher ceiling over the next 10 or so years. That said, the cap situation and lack of draft capital will keep the Rams out of the Lamar sweepstakes. (Granted, this team has shown that if they determine they want Lamar, they’ll find a way)

10.   New Orleans Saints – they literally just paid Derek Carr

11.   New York Giants – they literally just paid Daniel Jones

12.   Seattle Seahawks – they literally just paid Geno Smith

13.   Dallas Cowboys – to trade Dak could cost Dallas nearly $49 million in dead cap, and even worse if they straight up cut him. It would likely take Dak to get very generous about a restructure first, and that seems highly unlikely. If Jerry Jones wants Lamar, they, like the Rams, will find a way to make it happen and pay the cash over cap, but it’s highly unlikely.

14.   Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray’s contract extension hamstrings the Cardinals from moving on from him.

15.   Tampa Bay Buccaneers – the need is certainly there with Tom Brady (maybe?) retiring. But the cap situation is atrocious. Already roughly $50 million over the cap, the amount of work they would have to do to find a way to bring in Lamar requires cap gymnastics that only Howie Roseman or Les Snead seem capable of performing.

Here are the teams that are hard to imagine trading for Lamar, though both teams should at least call:

16.   Pittsburgh Steelers – they are the Ravens biggest rival. I personally believe that if you feel you’re better off without someone that you shouldn’t care where that player ends up because you’re confident your better without them, it’s not likely to trade a generational talent to your rival. It also feels like a move that the Steelers wouldn’t make. They have six Super Bowls and have done it the Steeler way. A big, splashy trade for a QB doesn’t feel like a Steeler move. Nor does offering Lamar a ridiculous high contract just to see if Baltimore matches and, thereby, limits their ability to build around Lamar. That’s understandable, but seems a little to underhanded for a proud franchise like Pittsburgh.

17.   The New England Patriots – they have a minor issue with Mac Jones’s contract in that they will pay more in dead cap to move on via trade or releasing than they would by keeping him. That said, his cap hit is not so much that they couldn’t feasibly keep him to back up Lamar. Like the Steelers, this just seems way too unlike the Patriots. Would it make them better? Absolutely. Would Bill Belichick make the move? I’d be shocked.

18.   Green Bay Packers – there are a lot of moving parts here. If Aaron Rodgers leaves, Lamar would be an amazing heir to the throne. Would he want to play in Green Bay? Would he want to wait to see if Aaron is traded? Seems highly unlikely the two biggest names available would both be connected to Green Bay in the offseason. But what better QB could GB get post-Rodgers than LJ?

19.   Miami Dolphins – this one is hard for me to write as a fan of the team. First, I love Tua as a human and a player. I don’t love that he is injury prone. I don’t love that he tends to hold the ball and take the hit when he could throw it away more. I don’t love that he doesn’t use his legs more to scramble out of situations, even if it’s just to throw the ball away. But I love Tua. I also love Lamar. Why wouldn’t I? And, oh my goodness, could you imagine this offense with Lamar? Hill. Waddle. Insert running back here. This team could be unstoppable offensively with Lamar. But…Miami doesn’t have a first round pick (thanks tampering and Bradley Chubb). So we’d have to go directly through Baltimore to make something work. Would it be amazing? Absolutely. Is it the end all and be all for the franchise? Probably not.

Well, that’s 18 of the 32 teams. Which means we have 14 more that could be in contention, right? Not so much.

20.   Tennessee Titans – there are rumors that the Titans could be willing to move on from all-world running back Derrick Henry. Good for Henry. The offense has seemingly been to hand it to the King. Last offseason, they traded their best WR. They cut one of their top offensive linemen. The team feels like their on the cusp of a total overhaul and rebuild. Why on earth would Lamar want to go to Tennessee right now?

21.   Washington Commanders – good young running back? Check. Good young receivers? Check. Need? Check. Good to great defense? Check. Why wouldn’t Lamar want to play in Washington? Well, the team is likely to be sold in the near future. Owner Dan Synder has been a lightning rod for controversies over the last several years and, allegedly, once threatened to bring others down with him if the NFL tries to force him out[4]. Lamar can avoid all of that drama by simply not considering them.

22.   Carolina Panthers – this is the first team we’ve talked about that doesn’t totally make sense. For some reason, however, the Panthers are one of a handful of teams that are reportedly out on Lamar, including the Dolphins, and the Commanders[5]. There’s one other on that list that we will get to because, though they claim to be out, I cannot fathom why and honestly think the fit is pretty good on both sides. Why Carolina would be out…maybe some lingering dread after trading for quarterbacks in each of the last three offseasons? Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield were each brought in to be the starter, but for a variety of reasons, none worked out. They have some pieces in place and Lamar is an instant upgrade, but if they want to chase a rookie or bring back Darnold for a third try, it’s their franchise.

 

With all of that, we are left with just 9 teams that seem viable to trade for Lamar, even if one of them says their out. The four teams with the greatest amounts of cap space all have questions surrounding their quarterback situation. Those teams are the Chicago Bears (nearly $96.9 million), the Atlanta Falcons ( nearly $67.3 million), the Houston Texans (nearly $42 million), and the Las Vegas Raiders (just over $39.7 million)[6]. So let’s look at each of these ten teams and rank for both Lamar and Baltimore which teams would make the most sense.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have good cap space. They have a good young receiver in Drake London, a good young tight end in Kyle Pitts, and a good all-purpose offensive weapon in Cordarelle Patterson. Arguably, they have a better collection of skill players than the Ravens do. With Tom Brady retiring, the best QB in the division is Derek Carr, and he’s been a saint for two days at this point. Jackson would immediately vault them into contention for the division. But this is that fourth team that is reportedly out. And I simply refuse to believe it. Because it’s nonsensical. It’s a stretch to allow Carolina to think they’re out, but Atlanta?! ATLANTA?!

It makes absolutely no sense for Atlanta to be out. The Marcus Mariota experiment is over. Do they feel that strongly about Desmond Ridder, who started four games going 2-2 and amassing 708 yards and two touchdowns (with no interceptions) in his rookie season[7]? If so, good on them. They pick 8th in April’s draft, so maybe there’s a quarterback they’re convinced will be available at 8? Maybe they are waiting to see if they can lure Aaron Rodgers to Atlanta? Maybe they want to see if they can trade the 8 for Justin Fields? It doesn’t feel like there’s a clear answer for Atlanta. They aren’t in as nice of a situation as the Bears, and that’s part of why they need Lamar more. No offense to Matt Ryan, who had several great years in Atlanta, but Lamar would be the most dynamic quarterback Atlanta has had since Michael Vick.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have a promising young quarterback in Justin Fields. They also have the first pick in the draft. If the Bears want a quarterback whose only question mark is health, Lamar’s is theirs for the taking. The spend whatever the need to in order to lure him to Chicago, they send the first overall pick to Baltimore (who drafts a QB first overall and for much cheaper), and then they still have Fields to trade away to build back some capital of their own. If they’re not all-in on Justin Fields, this is a no-brainer. They could offer $50 million a year, which would likely be far too rich for the Ravens to match. Sure, they lose number one, but first overall draft picks aren’t always as good as they’re made out to be. Plus, Fields should fetch them a handful of picks in return, maybe not first-rounders, but, then again, it only takes one team to over such a pick. Then, the Bears would still have over $46 million to spend on other free agents. The only other teams with more than $46 million in cap space? The Atlanta Falcons.

Detroit Lions

The contract for Jared Goff is better for the Lions if they cut or trade him. The team finished just shy of the playoffs a year ago. I think Goff is serviceable, but Lamar is undeniable. When healthy, Lamar is an upgrade 1000%. This team has good pieces, the draft picks, and while not the glaring the need, the upgrade potential is there. In a division where Chicago is uncertain about Fields or a first overall pick (if not Lamar), and Green Bay may see Rodgers traded, there’s an opening.

Houston Texans

The Texans have the second pick in the draft. They have cap space. They have a need. They have a new head coach. They have promise but seem a year or two away from being a year or two away. They could build around Lamar. He could be the catalyst to revitalize a franchise that saw a little success several years ago and squandered it.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have had a revolving door of starters since Andrew Luck. The last three years alone have seen them bring in Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan. Rivers had some success before retiring. Wentz didn’t cost them much, but didn’t outright win much either. Ryan did not live up to expectations that the Colts and I had for him. They have a great running back, a decent offensive line if they can get back to their game, and a decent young receiving corps. If they want to spend the money, Lamar is an instant upgrade and puts them in the driver seat for a division that may see the drop off of Tennessee and the rise of Jacksonville.

Las Vegas Raiders

Cap space in abundance. Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfroe, and Devante Adams. The only reason not to like Vegas is that the defense was often the downfall during the Derek Carr years. Granted, Lamar is an upgrade over Derek Carr. On paper, there isn’t a lot of reason for either side not to like this fit.

Minnesota Vikings

I have nothing against Kirk Cousins. But his contract can be traded. Lamar is an upgrade as he’s far more mobile. There’s also some serendipity at the thought of Lamar replacing Cousins as Cousins was the last QB to get a non-exclusive tag. Lamar with an okay defense and Dalvin Cook, Adam Theilen, and Justin Jefferson? Especially if Rodgers leaves Green Bay, the addition of Lamar sets Minnesota up to rule the north for the next several years.

New York Jets

This fit seems to be contingent on whether or not they can convince Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to trade. If they do, than they have no need for Lamar Jackson. Aaron Rodgers would be their number one. But if they cannot, than it makes sense that they would turn their sights to Lamar and bringing him in. Zack Wilson didn’t show much improvement last year. They have the offensive and defensive rookies of the year. It’s a young group to build around. The Bills showed they are vulnerable. Miami has shown that they can want to take that next step, but sometimes trip over themselves in doing so, and New England proved that a defensive coordinator should not call an offense. The East is winnable, and a quarterback like Lamar would make the Jets instantly viable. So would Rodgers. Which means we have to wait.

San Francisco 49ers

I love Brock Purdy. What an amazing story he was. Granted, he’s coming into the offseason with an elbow injury on his throwing arm that had him flirting with Tommy John surgery. Trey Lance is also coming off an injury that cost him most of 2022. The offense looked better once he went down, too. Which is hard to say about a player who was essentially a rookie, but when Purdy came in looking as good as he did with less time in the scheme it calls into question Lance’s ability to run Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Lamar would be an instant upgrade in terms of proven talent. His biggest question is health, and, well, that is true of both Lance and Purdy at this point, too. For all of the other teams that have dream offenses when you add Lamar, is there any better than San Francisco? Deebo Samuel. Christian McCaffrey. George Kittle. This team becomes the team to beat in the NFC, all due respect to the Eagles.

 

So, let’s rank the top five destinations.

For Baltimore:

5. Detroit Lions

4. Indianapolis Colts

3. Houston Texans

2. Chicago Bears

1. Baltimore Ravens

 

For Lamar:

5. Atlanta Falcons

4. Detroit Lions

3. Las Vegas Raiders

2. Minnesota Vikings

1. San Francisco 49ers

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Wednesday, March 1, 2023

What If and Why Not

Some fans wonder what the team would have looked like if they did sign this player, or didn’t trade that player. However, it’s not as easy as saying that if Chicago had drafted Patrick Mahomes than the Bears would have won two Super Bowls. Because it’s not that simple. It never has been. So let’s look at a couple of major what ifs across sports and see why they’re important to ask, but probably wouldn’t have changed things the way fans might want.

What if the Chicago Bears selected Patrick Mahomes?

In 2017, the Chicago Bears had the 3rd overall pick in the draft. On draft day, the Bears traded picks 3, 67 and 111 in the 2017 draft and third round pick in 2018 to the San Francisco 49ers to move up to the 2 spot. At number 2 overall, the Bears selected quarterback Mitchell Trubisky.

Later that night, the Kansas City Chiefs moved their pick (27) and pick 91, as well as a 2019 first to Buffalo in exchange for the Bills’ 10th overall pick. With that pick, the Chiefs then selected Mahomes.

Since that draft, Mahomes has been to the AFC Championship in five straight seasons, won the MVP twice, won two Super Bowls and was Super Bowl MVP each time. Trubisky was replaced in Chicago by Justin Fields and now backs up Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh.

But what if Chicago had selected Mahomes 2nd overall? If Chicago does that, Mahomes probably doesn’t sit for the majority of his rookie season, as he did in KC. Instead, with Mike Glennon having started only 4 games, Mahomes is likely thrown into a starting role sometime in the middle of the season. Mahomes doesn’t have offensive-minded head coach Andy Reid to draw up plays for him. Instead, he plays initially for John Fox. He doesn’t have weapons like Kareem Hunt (1,327 rushing yards, 455 receiving yards, 11 total TDs), Tyreek Hill (1,183 receiving yards, 59 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and Travis Kelce (1,038 receiving yards and 8 TD). Granted, those numbers came with Alex Smith running the offense. In Chicago, Mahomes would have had Jordan Howard (1,122 rushing yards, 125 receiving yards, 9 TDs), Josh Bellamy and Kendall Wright (combined 990 receiving yards and 2 TDs), and Dion Sims (180 receiving yards and 1 TD). While Howard had a good year running, the weapons around Mahomes would have been worse than what he had in Kansas City.

Yes, Mahomes is a better athlete and quarterback than Mike Glennon and Mitch Trubisky combined. In Chicago, however, he might not have the chance to reach that potential given that he would have had a different offensive philosophy and less talented (with all due respect) skill players. Everybody’s number probably look better with Mahomes, but can he lead the Bears to the conference championship game with that offensive as it was constructed?

A better what if might be to ask what might have happened if Chicago stays at 3. San Francisco was not likely to draft a QB anyway. If Trubisky does go, they could have selected Mahomes at 3 while keeping their other picks. Pick #67 ended up with New Orleans. They selected Alvin Kamara. Pick 111, ended up with Seattle. They selected S Tedric Thompson. The 2018 pick—which could have ended up a different selection because of the 2017 Bears’ record—was used to select LB Fred Warner. While Thompson isn’t quite the same caliber as the others, the Bears could have, in theory, selected Trubisky or Mahomes at 3 as well as Alvin Kamara and, a year later, Fred Warner. Still, that may not have been enough to win a Super Bowl, let alone two, but the Bears would have arguably been better positioned.

Conclusion: the Bears chose wrong, but that doesn’t mean they’d have two Super Bowls right now.

 

What if the Miami Dolphins sign Drew Brees?

This one is near and dear to my heart as I am a Miami Dolphins fan. In 2006, the then- San Diego Chargers were ready to give the starting position to Phillip Rivers. Drew Brees was coming off a shoulder injury, which left some teams with red flags, including the Dolphins. Not wanting to meet the amount of money Brees was seeking, in part because of questions about the injury, Miami opted to wait and see if the price came down. The New Orleans Saints took advantage and signed Brees to a six-year $60 million deal (which sounds low in 2023 money, but was a pretty good deal in 2006). The Dolphins felt more confident in the injury report for Minnesota Vikings quarterback Daunte Culpepper and traded a second-round pick to Minnesota for Culpepper.

Culpepper started just four games for Miami, going 1-3 while throwing for 929 yards, two TDs and three interceptions. In 2006, Brees started all 16 games, went 10-6 and threw for 4,418 yards, 26 TDs and 11 interceptions. Brees became a staple in New Orleans, leading the team to their first, and so far only, Super Bowl in the 2009 season, and led the Saints for 15 years. Brees is a sure-fire Hall of Famer in 2025 when he becomes eligible.

Miami Dolphins head coach Nick Saban would leave the Dolphins after the 2006 season (his second as head coach) to become the head coach at Alabama. (That seems to have worked out for him). He said in a 2021 article with Sports Illustrated that if the Dolphins had signed Brees, he likely would have stayed, but failing to do so was a big factor into his leaving the team[1]. While that is the case, Saban is not the same coach as then-Saints coach Sean Payton.

Much like the Mahomes scenario above, the players in Miami were different. The training staff was different. The coaching staff was different. While it’s easy to say Brees moves into that role and is still a Hall of Fame quarterback, it’s important to note that perhaps his injury isn’t as well treated long-term with the Miami staff, or it’s at least different. The offense may not be as personalized as Payton was able to do. Maybe Miami isn’t as patient. Regardless, while Brees couldn’t have been worse than Culpepper, it’s far from a guarantee that he has the same success in South Beach.

Conclusion: the Dolphins chose wrong, but it doesn’t mean they would have won big.

What if the Portland Trailblazers selected Michael Jordan?

The Houston Rockets selected Hakeem Olajuwon first overall in 1984. He went on to play in 1,238 games, score 26,946 points and collected 13,748 rebounds over 44,222 minutes played across 18 seasons. He is an MVP, won two NBA titles with the Rockets and was MVP for both of those, and is a Hall of Famer. While Michael Jordan is widely considered the best player of all time, there is no reason to question if this was a good pick or not.

The Portland Trailblazers selected Sam Bowie second. He totaled 511 games played over 10 seasons. He played 14,098 minutes and scored 5,564 points and collected 3,845 rebounds. A respectable career, for sure.

Michael Jordan was selected by the Chicago Bears with the third pick. Over 15 seasons between the Bulls and the Wizards, MJ played 41,011 minutes, scored 32,292 points and collected 6,672 points. He won six NBA Championships, twice winning three in a row. He was Finals MVP for all six. He won five NBA MVPs. He is a Hall of Famer. He is widely regarded as the best player ever. If not the best, he is top three.

So what if Portland landed MJ?

Chicago didn’t yet have the players that often come to mind when thinking of MJ’s championship years. Phil Jackson wasn’t the coach yet. Scottie Pippen was drafted in 1987. Steve Kerr doesn’t become a Bull until 1993. Dennis Rodman doesn’t become a Bull until 1995. So while MJ had a big part in the turnaround, the core pieces were not yet in place.

Portland, however, had one big core player in place at that time that may have helped elevate MJ to even greater heights sooner. They had Clyde Drexler. Clyde didn’t help win a title until 1995 when paired with Houston and Hakeem Olajuwon. The big issue there, however? They technically played the same position. However, at 6’7”, Drexler could have played a hybrid role and Portland could have made it work.

If Jack Ramsay doesn’t work out with the Trailblazers with Clyde and MJ, Phil Jackson could have joined them instead of Chicago. Steve Kerr and Dennis Rodman could also end up in Portland as easily as they did Chicago. Scottie Pippen may not make it there, depending on how the draft shakes out in 1987, but any big piece from Chicago could just as easily have ended up in Portland.

So, that means this is a huge swing and a miss, right?

Not necessarily. If Portland doesn’t unlocked and allow Michael Jordan to become MJ, he may not have dominated the basketball world in the mid-1990s. But, for all we know, MJ becomes injury prone in Portland.

Conclusion: While nothing is guaranteed, Portland probably should have drafted MJ.

These are just three examples of famous what-ifs in sports. There are many others we can and probably will discuss in future posts.

While it’s fun to play out how things would change, it’s not as simple as assuming that the results would automatically transfer. In two of the three instances explored here, the result likely don’t mirror the way it was.

Sometimes, fans get caught up in the what-ifs, when we should focus on what’s next for our teams.

 


[1] https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/coach-nick-saban-discusses-his-departure-from-miami-dolphins

NBA stats and information found at https://www.basketball-reference.com/

NFL stats and information found at https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

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Wednesday, February 22, 2023

Winning is Money, No Cap

In the last couple of weeks, the Las Vegas Aces have seen their team and management team in the news. Is it because they are the defending WNBA Champions? No. Is it because they recently signed two-time MVP Candace Parker? Not really. It’s because they are alleged to be paying their players.

Wait a minute. That doesn’t sound like a bad thing, but there’s that word “alleged.” Candace Parker is making $95,000 less than she did a year ago. But maybe she’s just trying to win a title. Money isn’t everything and $95,000 doesn’t seem like a lot of money to lose out for a professional athlete.

Except, $95,000 in the WNBA is a lot of money. The league has a salary cap of just $1,420,500 in 2023. it’s easy to see how much money that is. That amount is equal to 6.69% of a team’s full salary. So good on Parker for chasing a title. Where’s the scandal in that. The scandal is in it that the Aces are accused of paying their players under-the-table, through third parties, and, thereby, circumventing the salary cap.[1]

There’s a lot to this story. There’s the fact that the WNBA has a minimum salary, or floor, that teams must adhere to ($1,188,990); 50-50 split of incremental revenue; and even the way that the WNBA has different salary brackets for different levels of WNBA players such as rookies and veterans[2].

But, what does it matter? What’s the impact to fans? The impact is in competition.

The NBA has a very similar structure to the WNBA, but they are scaled way up, with a salary cap of $123,655,000[3]. The NFL has a salary cap of $224.8 million in 2023[4]. The NHL has a cap of $82.5 million[5]. MLB is the only team without a hard cap, implementing instead a competitive balance tax (currently $233 million) that charges teams for spending over the tax threshold by 20% the first year, 30% the second consecutive year, 50% the third consecutive year and, depending on how far over the threshold a team goes, either a 12%, 42.5% or 60% surcharge as well as possible draft pick penalties[6].

All the systems are complicated in their own way. For example, injuries factor into most caps to some degree. There are exceptions built-in to caps to help teams dealing with injuries. There are ways to go over the cap, such as the concept of cash-over-cap in the NFL that essentially allows teams to kick possible cap penalties into the future when the cap will likely be higher and, therefore, the penalties less impactful[7].

But why would you want to pay players more than the cap if you’re goal is to make money? The answer is simple: winning makes money. The top five teams in the 2022 Forbes breakdown of most valuable franchises are the Dallas Cowboys, New England Patriots, Los Angeles Rams, New York Yankees and New York Giants[8]. You may be thinking to yourself that those teams don’t seem to match the winning, but let me assure you that they do. Dallas has five championships, New England has six, Los Angeles has one (the other was in St. Louis) that came last year, the Yankees have 27, and the Giants have 4. That’s 43 titles between them, 16 for the NFL franchises alone. Even if some of those are a decade or two old, the legacy of winning lingers. The Chicago Bears are sixth on that same list, despite just one championship. But sometimes winning isn’t just about winning titles. A long history of winning and being competitive and in the hunt helps. See the Cowboys over the last 20 or so years. No real threat to the championship, but enough success that fans can believe in them.

There’s been a lot of talk recently about a salary floor in MLB. Of the 30 teams in MLB, 16 of them are under the league average going into the 2023 season, and nine of those teams are likely to pay players less than $100 million combined[9]. In 2022, MLB exceed $10.8 billion in revenue for the first time ever, and, according to the MLBPA, saw players making roughly 54.80% of total revenue as of 2018[10].

Looking at the WNBA, there are 12 teams. In 2018, the WNBA brought in close to $60 million in revenue. If the WNBA cap was maxed by all teams, they would spend a total of $17,046,000, or just 28.41% of total revenue.

While the question of whether sports should be worth as much money as it is, let alone individual athletes, is a fair one, it’s not the central point to the issue at hand. So what take aways are there from the Las Vegas Aces?

1)      It’s never okay to cheat. If the Aces did circumvent the cap, they need to be punished in a meaningful way.

2)      Players risk their own health and safety being the ones on the court, pitch, field, ice, etc. They should, collectively, make more than the owners who are not risking injuries.

3)      The WNBA needs to fix their profit sharing system. While the 50-50 split of incremental revenue is a step in the right direction, players should not be making just more than a quarter of league revenue. Half or more of actual revenue must happen.

Teams can’t cheat. It’s a question of morals, ethics, and a level playing field. However, those that try to find loopholes to win are at least aware that winning is profitable and long-term winning is invaluable.


[3] https://www.nba.com/news/nba-salary-cap-for-2022-23-season-set-at-just-over-123-million

[6] https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-tax

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