Late Inning Field Goal: Lamar the Raven: Nevermore?

According to multiple sources, Derek Carr has signed with the New Orleans Saints for four years and $150 million. That breaks down to $37.5 million per year.

According to multiple sources, Daniel Jones has resigned with the New York Giants for four years and $160 million. That breaks down to $40 million per year.

According to multiple sources, Geno Smith has resigned with the Seattle Seahawks for three years and $105 million. That breaks down to $35 million per year.

According to multiple sources, the Baltimore Ravens have placed a non-exclusive franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. Thereby, Jackson can negotiate with other teams. If a team offers, the Ravens can match the deal and, therefore, keep Jackson. If the Ravens decline to match, the new team would have to give two first-round picks to the Ravens. If no deal is reached with the Ravens, or any other team, than the Ravens will have to offer a one-year contract worth $32.416 million[1]. Lamar cannot begin speaking to teams on Monday, March 13.

While Lamar has battled injuries over the last two seasons, starting only 12 games each year, he does have something that neither Derek Carr, Daniel Jones, nor Geno Smith has: an MVP.

Yet, there’s an argument to be made that the Baltimore Ravens will be better off if another team offers a significant deal. That’s not just about me being a fan of an organization that has gone through 23 different starting quarterbacks in the last 20 years, including three last season alone.

To be clear, it is not because Lamar Jackson is a bad player. It’s not because he isn’t capable of leading them to titles. It’s not because the Ravens play in a division with Joe Burrow. It’s all about the money and the scheme. So, let’s look briefly at why the Ravens might want to move on and which teams should be all-in on Lamar.

According to Spotac, the Ravens are currently nearly $8.3 million over the cap for 2023[2]. That’s assuming the $32.416 million from the tag.

I am not Lamar Jackson. I have no idea how much money he might want. I don’t know what his minimum is. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say it’s $47 million, which is a little more than Kyler Murray received in an extension before the 2022 season.

In order to give him that, the Ravens would have to restructure nearly every contract they possibly can. That would means players like Ronnie Stanley, Marlon Humphrey, Mark Andrews and more would likely have to either shift money around or take pay cuts. Ownership can always find a way to provide cash over cap, a way to spread the cap hit into the future while paying more in signing bonuses (for example) now. But this would require a lot of goodwill amongst other players. Other players that will look to Lamar and know that, if not for their sacrifices and willingness, he wouldn’t be there. That’s not necessarily going to cause issues in the locker room, but it could.

But there are additional issues that brings. For example, it definitely hamstrings the organization for any other possible free agents they might want to bring in. So what could happen?

Well, for starters, they could pray a team with cap space offers him something he likes and they get the two first rounders for him. This would give them over $22.6 million in cap space[3], but leave them without a clear starter. That is, unless they believe in Tyler “Snoop” Huntley as a number one. I mean, he was, technically, a pro bowler last year (yikes).

So let’s start with which teams should be out and why.

1. Buffalo Bills – they have Josh Allen

2. Cincinnati Bengals – they have Joe Burrow

3. Kansas City Chiefs – they have Patrick Mahomes

4. Jacksonville Jaguars – they have Trevor Lawrence

5. Los Angeles Chargers – they have Justin Herbert

6. Philadelphia Eagles – they have Jalen Hurtz

Now let’s look at the teams that are out, but should otherwise be in.

7. Cleveland Browns – he who shall not be named came at the expense of a lot of draft picks, a fully guaranteed contract over $219 million, and any integrity the ownership group and organization had.

8. Denver Broncos – Russell Wilson cost the Broncos a ton of picks and a lot of money. While Lamar would be better than Wilson, it would be next to impossible to move on from Russ so soon (hence why they fired their coach instead)

9. Los Angeles Rams – Matthew Stafford is getting up in football years and injuries caught up to him last season. He may come back healthy and ready to go in 2023, but Lamar has a higher ceiling over the next 10 or so years. That said, the cap situation and lack of draft capital will keep the Rams out of the Lamar sweepstakes. (Granted, this team has shown that if they determine they want Lamar, they’ll find a way)

10. New Orleans Saints – they literally just paid Derek Carr

11. New York Giants – they literally just paid Daniel Jones

12. Seattle Seahawks – they literally just paid Geno Smith

13. Dallas Cowboys – to trade Dak could cost Dallas nearly $49 million in dead cap, and even worse if they straight up cut him. It would likely take Dak to get very generous about a restructure first, and that seems highly unlikely. If Jerry Jones wants Lamar, they, like the Rams, will find a way to make it happen and pay the cash over cap, but it’s highly unlikely.

14. Arizona Cardinals – Kyler Murray’s contract extension hamstrings the Cardinals from moving on from him.

15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – the need is certainly there with Tom Brady (maybe?) retiring. But the cap situation is atrocious. Already roughly $50 million over the cap, the amount of work they would have to do to find a way to bring in Lamar requires cap gymnastics that only Howie Roseman or Les Snead seem capable of performing.

Here are the teams that are hard to imagine trading for Lamar, though both teams should at least call:

16. Pittsburgh Steelers – they are the Ravens biggest rival. I personally believe that if you feel you’re better off without someone that you shouldn’t care where that player ends up because you’re confident your better without them, it’s not likely to trade a generational talent to your rival. It also feels like a move that the Steelers wouldn’t make. They have six Super Bowls and have done it the Steeler way. A big, splashy trade for a QB doesn’t feel like a Steeler move. Nor does offering Lamar a ridiculous high contract just to see if Baltimore matches and, thereby, limits their ability to build around Lamar. That’s understandable, but seems a little to underhanded for a proud franchise like Pittsburgh.

17. The New England Patriots – they have a minor issue with Mac Jones’s contract in that they will pay more in dead cap to move on via trade or releasing than they would by keeping him. That said, his cap hit is not so much that they couldn’t feasibly keep him to back up Lamar. Like the Steelers, this just seems way too unlike the Patriots. Would it make them better? Absolutely. Would Bill Belichick make the move? I’d be shocked.

18. Green Bay Packers – there are a lot of moving parts here. If Aaron Rodgers leaves, Lamar would be an amazing heir to the throne. Would he want to play in Green Bay? Would he want to wait to see if Aaron is traded? Seems highly unlikely the two biggest names available would both be connected to Green Bay in the offseason. But what better QB could GB get post-Rodgers than LJ?

19. Miami Dolphins – this one is hard for me to write as a fan of the team. First, I love Tua as a human and a player. I don’t love that he is injury prone. I don’t love that he tends to hold the ball and take the hit when he could throw it away more. I don’t love that he doesn’t use his legs more to scramble out of situations, even if it’s just to throw the ball away. But I love Tua. I also love Lamar. Why wouldn’t I? And, oh my goodness, could you imagine this offense with Lamar? Hill. Waddle. Insert running back here. This team could be unstoppable offensively with Lamar. But…Miami doesn’t have a first round pick (thanks tampering and Bradley Chubb). So we’d have to go directly through Baltimore to make something work. Would it be amazing? Absolutely. Is it the end all and be all for the franchise? Probably not.

Well, that’s 18 of the 32 teams. Which means we have 14 more that could be in contention, right? Not so much.

20. Tennessee Titans – there are rumors that the Titans could be willing to move on from all-world running back Derrick Henry. Good for Henry. The offense has seemingly been to hand it to the King. Last offseason, they traded their best WR. They cut one of their top offensive linemen. The team feels like their on the cusp of a total overhaul and rebuild. Why on earth would Lamar want to go to Tennessee right now?

21. Washington Commanders – good young running back? Check. Good young receivers? Check. Need? Check. Good to great defense? Check. Why wouldn’t Lamar want to play in Washington? Well, the team is likely to be sold in the near future. Owner Dan Synder has been a lightning rod for controversies over the last several years and, allegedly, once threatened to bring others down with him if the NFL tries to force him out[4]. Lamar can avoid all of that drama by simply not considering them.

22. Carolina Panthers – this is the first team we’ve talked about that doesn’t totally make sense. For some reason, however, the Panthers are one of a handful of teams that are reportedly out on Lamar, including the Dolphins, and the Commanders[5]. There’s one other on that list that we will get to because, though they claim to be out, I cannot fathom why and honestly think the fit is pretty good on both sides. Why Carolina would be out…maybe some lingering dread after trading for quarterbacks in each of the last three offseasons? Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield were each brought in to be the starter, but for a variety of reasons, none worked out. They have some pieces in place and Lamar is an instant upgrade, but if they want to chase a rookie or bring back Darnold for a third try, it’s their franchise.

With all of that, we are left with just 9 teams that seem viable to trade for Lamar, even if one of them says their out. The four teams with the greatest amounts of cap space all have questions surrounding their quarterback situation. Those teams are the Chicago Bears (nearly $96.9 million), the Atlanta Falcons ( nearly $67.3 million), the Houston Texans (nearly $42 million), and the Las Vegas Raiders (just over $39.7 million)[6]. So let’s look at each of these ten teams and rank for both Lamar and Baltimore which teams would make the most sense.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons have good cap space. They have a good young receiver in Drake London, a good young tight end in Kyle Pitts, and a good all-purpose offensive weapon in Cordarelle Patterson. Arguably, they have a better collection of skill players than the Ravens do. With Tom Brady retiring, the best QB in the division is Derek Carr, and he’s been a saint for two days at this point. Jackson would immediately vault them into contention for the division. But this is that fourth team that is reportedly out. And I simply refuse to believe it. Because it’s nonsensical. It’s a stretch to allow Carolina to think they’re out, but Atlanta?! ATLANTA?!

It makes absolutely no sense for Atlanta to be out. The Marcus Mariota experiment is over. Do they feel that strongly about Desmond Ridder, who started four games going 2-2 and amassing 708 yards and two touchdowns (with no interceptions) in his rookie season[7]? If so, good on them. They pick 8^th in April’s draft, so maybe there’s a quarterback they’re convinced will be available at 8? Maybe they are waiting to see if they can lure Aaron Rodgers to Atlanta? Maybe they want to see if they can trade the 8 for Justin Fields? It doesn’t feel like there’s a clear answer for Atlanta. They aren’t in as nice of a situation as the Bears, and that’s part of why they need Lamar more. No offense to Matt Ryan, who had several great years in Atlanta, but Lamar would be the most dynamic quarterback Atlanta has had since Michael Vick.

Chicago Bears

The Bears have a promising young quarterback in Justin Fields. They also have the first pick in the draft. If the Bears want a quarterback whose only question mark is health, Lamar’s is theirs for the taking. The spend whatever the need to in order to lure him to Chicago, they send the first overall pick to Baltimore (who drafts a QB first overall and for much cheaper), and then they still have Fields to trade away to build back some capital of their own. If they’re not all-in on Justin Fields, this is a no-brainer. They could offer $50 million a year, which would likely be far too rich for the Ravens to match. Sure, they lose number one, but first overall draft picks aren’t always as good as they’re made out to be. Plus, Fields should fetch them a handful of picks in return, maybe not first-rounders, but, then again, it only takes one team to over such a pick. Then, the Bears would still have over $46 million to spend on other free agents. The only other teams with more than $46 million in cap space? The Atlanta Falcons.

Detroit Lions

The contract for Jared Goff is better for the Lions if they cut or trade him. The team finished just shy of the playoffs a year ago. I think Goff is serviceable, but Lamar is undeniable. When healthy, Lamar is an upgrade 1000%. This team has good pieces, the draft picks, and while not the glaring the need, the upgrade potential is there. In a division where Chicago is uncertain about Fields or a first overall pick (if not Lamar), and Green Bay may see Rodgers traded, there’s an opening.

Houston Texans

The Texans have the second pick in the draft. They have cap space. They have a need. They have a new head coach. They have promise but seem a year or two away from being a year or two away. They could build around Lamar. He could be the catalyst to revitalize a franchise that saw a little success several years ago and squandered it.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts have had a revolving door of starters since Andrew Luck. The last three years alone have seen them bring in Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan. Rivers had some success before retiring. Wentz didn’t cost them much, but didn’t outright win much either. Ryan did not live up to expectations that the Colts and I had for him. They have a great running back, a decent offensive line if they can get back to their game, and a decent young receiving corps. If they want to spend the money, Lamar is an instant upgrade and puts them in the driver seat for a division that may see the drop off of Tennessee and the rise of Jacksonville.

Las Vegas Raiders

Cap space in abundance. Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfroe, and Devante Adams. The only reason not to like Vegas is that the defense was often the downfall during the Derek Carr years. Granted, Lamar is an upgrade over Derek Carr. On paper, there isn’t a lot of reason for either side not to like this fit.

Minnesota Vikings

I have nothing against Kirk Cousins. But his contract can be traded. Lamar is an upgrade as he’s far more mobile. There’s also some serendipity at the thought of Lamar replacing Cousins as Cousins was the last QB to get a non-exclusive tag. Lamar with an okay defense and Dalvin Cook, Adam Theilen, and Justin Jefferson? Especially if Rodgers leaves Green Bay, the addition of Lamar sets Minnesota up to rule the north for the next several years.

New York Jets

This fit seems to be contingent on whether or not they can convince Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to trade. If they do, than they have no need for Lamar Jackson. Aaron Rodgers would be their number one. But if they cannot, than it makes sense that they would turn their sights to Lamar and bringing him in. Zack Wilson didn’t show much improvement last year. They have the offensive and defensive rookies of the year. It’s a young group to build around. The Bills showed they are vulnerable. Miami has shown that they can want to take that next step, but sometimes trip over themselves in doing so, and New England proved that a defensive coordinator should not call an offense. The East is winnable, and a quarterback like Lamar would make the Jets instantly viable. So would Rodgers. Which means we have to wait.

San Francisco 49ers

I love Brock Purdy. What an amazing story he was. Granted, he’s coming into the offseason with an elbow injury on his throwing arm that had him flirting with Tommy John surgery. Trey Lance is also coming off an injury that cost him most of 2022. The offense looked better once he went down, too. Which is hard to say about a player who was essentially a rookie, but when Purdy came in looking as good as he did with less time in the scheme it calls into question Lance’s ability to run Kyle Shanahan’s offense. Lamar would be an instant upgrade in terms of proven talent. His biggest question is health, and, well, that is true of both Lance and Purdy at this point, too. For all of the other teams that have dream offenses when you add Lamar, is there any better than San Francisco? Deebo Samuel. Christian McCaffrey. George Kittle. This team becomes the team to beat in the NFC, all due respect to the Eagles.

So, let’s rank the top five destinations.

For Baltimore:

5. Detroit Lions

4. Indianapolis Colts

3. Houston Texans

2. Chicago Bears

1. Baltimore Ravens

For Lamar:

5. Atlanta Falcons

4. Detroit Lions

3. Las Vegas Raiders

2. Minnesota Vikings