I would love to jump right into my take on sport, but first I must tend to the rumors that have taken the sports world by storm: No, I will not leave my post at the Community College of Vermont’s Upper Valley Academic Center to become the closer for the Boston Red Sox.
I do have a good knuckleball though, and a serviceable curve. But I have no four-seam fastball to speak of and my two-seamer has movement but I’m sure it lacks in the velocity department. I am too ashamed to throw in front of the gun.
Besides, Alfredo Aceves and Mark Melancon are a combined 1-for-3 in save situations. That makes them far better than the Blue Jays’ Sergio Santos, who has now blown both of his save opportunities this year. 33% better. That doesn’t seem like a lot, and adds some statistical relevance to the recent uproar of begs and pleads to move Daniel Bard back out of the rotation before he has even had a chance to start.
So does this statistic: before coming in to pitch in the 9th inning, Red Sox closer Alfredo Aceves had an ERA of ∞. Yes, I said ∞. That passed out 8 stands for infinity. Infinity is a very high number and is quite difficult to count to. An ERA of infinity. Let that sink in. Infinity. Start counting to it. 1…2…3…
But this stat is misleading. It’s not like he’d given up an infinite number of runs. Quite the contrary. He has given up only three runs in two appearances. So why the otherworldly ERA? He had not recorded an out. To get an ERA, you divide the number of earned runs of a given pitcher by the number of innings he has pitched and then multiply by 9 which gives us an algebraic formula of (ER/IP)x9. When I pull up my calculator in Windows and try dividing 3 by 0, I receive the message “Cannot divide by zero.” Each out equals one third of inning. So when Aceves finally recorded his first out last night, his ERA-quation became (3/.33)x9. That gave him an ERA of 81.00.
One out dropped his ERA from the highest you can’t possibly fathom, infinity, to 81. Don’t get me wrong, that is a terrible ERA, especially for a closer. But when you think about it further, having his current ERA of 27.00—(3/1)x9—means he really just had one bad outing. Ok, his first outing wasn’t good. He faced two batters. He hit one and the other got a hit to bring in the winning run. But the run wasn’t charged to him, it was charged to Melancon. Had he come in with the bases empty, there may not have been a run scored in the inning. He could have allowed the two base runners, and maybe even a third, before getting three outs. In Boston, that type of inning is called a Papelbon.
So he blew the save on Sunday in Detroit. Big deal. Papelbon blew three last season. Melancon blew five last season (with the Astros). Melancon blew one in that game. Santos blew his second of the year last night. The Tigers saw their closer, Jose Valverde, blow his first save of this season on opening night against the Red Sox. Valverde had converted 49 of 49 save opportunities a year ago. A blown save is heartbreaking for sure. But does it mean that he is not a good closer because he blew a save in game 3? He didn’t know he was the closer until about a week ago. He had been preparing to start. So readjusting back to the bullpen would have taken a game or two to settle in. Forget about going from closer to starter.
Which is another reason why bring Bard back to the bullpen would be a monumentally bad idea. He has spent all spring forgetting how to be a one-inning pitcher and learning how pitch effectively over several innings. He gets the start tonight and he wants to start. He does not want to close. Papelbon wanted to close. He saw the opening when he was trying to become a starter and asked to put back there. Bard saw the opening in the rotation and asked to be put there. Bard was great in the set-up role but I have yet to see that screw loose that allows a closer to be effective. Even he fails as a starter I don’t see him having the attitude to be a closer. He should be allowed to start. If it works out than we can find bullpen help somewhere else. But if it doesn’t I would rather see them put Bard back in the eighth inning.
This means we could use some bullpen help. Vincente Padilla, Scott Atchison, and Franklin Morales have all done well so far this year. It is the “struggles” of Aceves (who is trying to adapt to the closer’s role) and Melancon (who is trying to adapt to pitching in Boston) that make the bullpen look weak. It’s the back-end of the bullpen that is fragile. The eighth and ninth inning guys are the shaky ones. So what we need is a late-inning pitcher. Someone who has closed games before. Someone like…
Michael Bowden. Once thought to be a starting pitching prospect, the Red Sox turned him into a reliever last year. Bowden converted 16 of his 17 save opportunities in Triple-A Pawtucket last season. According to his player page, he was 3-3 last season, pitching 52.2 innings over 41 appearances with an ERA of 2.73. Papelbon was 4-1 in 2011 with the Red Sox, pitching 64.1 innings over 63 games with an ERA of 2.94 and was 31-of-34 on save opportunities. Granted that these numbers are minor leagues vs. major leagues, but they really aren’t that different: ERAs under three, only a small percentage of blown saves (to 5.9% for Bowden to 8.8% for Pap), and the ability to come in and be effective in non-save opportunities (compare opportunities to innings pitched). And, oh by the way, Bowden is already in the Red Sox organization.
It is too soon to be giving up on Aceves. It is ill-advised to throw Bard back into the frying pan after moving him to the fire. But if the panic button must be pushed, looking in-house is the right option, it’s not Bard, it’s Bowden. But please, please, please people. Panic in Boston is fun when we are collapsing in September. Let us set sail before we jump ship. Give the Red Sox a chance.
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