Wait 'Til This Year

There’s a popular phrase in sports: “wait ‘til next year.”

The phrase is uttered with hope by teams on the rise like the Kansas City Royals. A farm system full of talent, a division dominated currently by the Detroit Tigers, and the addition of another playoff spot in each league gives the up-and-coming Royals hope of contention.

The phrase is a calling card for teams like the Chicago Cubs. Uttered partly in hope, because hope is more favorable than despair, it is said more in disappointment and sarcasm. Another season comes and goes and whatever potential had built up falls into the ranks of the unachieved.

It was once and may again be the motto of Red Sox Nation. Disappointingly asserted as the disclaimer to 86 unfulfilling seasons, the Red Sox finally made the post-2003 season’s heartbreaking rendition a fact. That next season, 2004, Boston brought home the first World Series title since 1918. They captured a second in 2007.

But the Red Sox have spent two straight Octobers at home. After the 2010 season, Boston acquired top-tier free agent Carl Crawford and traded for top-notch first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. “Next year” seemed like a sure thing. But a horrific September postponed “next year” yet again.

And last year’s next year is ever so close to beginning. But what about this year? What exactly have we spent the last four or so months waiting for? Here’s my totally unscientific, purely opinion based preview of the 2012 Boston Red Sox.

Two weeks ago, I said I thought the Red Sox rotation would be better than they look on paper. And I completely mean it. Duran Duran comparisons aside, Boston will run out three aces: yesteryear’s ace, Josh Beckett; the current ace Jon Lester; and the future ace in Clay Buchholz. Oh by the way, if Daniel Bard is half as good at starting as he was in the setup role, he will be one to discuss as a future ace as well.

It’s a big “if.” Bard tried starting in the lower levels of the minors and the result was…well…he became a reliever for a reason. But this is Bard’s best chance at making the leap. The Red Sox have a handful of low-risk options on the roster (we’ll get to them in a minute). But what helps Bard the most is that he has a safety net in place. The Red Sox did not keep Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox did not sign a big name closer like Heath Bell or Ryan Madson.

Andrew Bailey is the closer as of now. And I have complete faith in his ability. The questions for Bailey are health and the pressure of pitching in the AL East, home to the lineups of the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Rays. If either health or pressure prevents Bailey from competing at his best, a similarly struggling Bard could slide into the role many thought he would inherit this season anyway. Or, if Bard struggles and Bailey shines, Bard could find himself right back where he started, the eighth inning. I think Bard will be, at worst, a serviceable fifth starter, but if not, I feel he is best served in the setup role. I don’t think Bard has the screw loose that every closer needs.

As of now, Bard is penciled in as the fourth starter. Number five is reserved for Alfredo Aceves. And I personally think any of the low-risk guys (Aaron Cook, Carlos Silva, Vincente Padilla) would be better served in that role. I don’t say that because I think Aceves wouldn’t do well. Quite the contrary. I would be surprised if he didn’t accumulate ten or more wins. I say it because Aceves was the most quintessential piece of the bullpen last year and I don’t want that to change. I think Aceves would help most as swingman extraordinaire. Even if the fifth starter is a mix of the three names above with spot starts from Aceves and maybe even Andrew Miller, I think the job for the number five spot will be to eat innings. 10 or more wins wouldn’t hurt, but if those four (plus Aceves in spots) can accumulate a combined 200 or so innings, then the Red Sox should be in good shape.

I do think the Red Sox will add another pitcher before the end of spring training. Jackson is off the market and Oswalt seems to have talked his way out of a deal, or a deal that pays well at least. He wants to be closer to home so I say forget about him. The best options are probably a trade, if the prospect price is right. If we give up too much, there won’t be much to wait for. Gavin Floyd of the White Sox sounds like the best option in my book. John Lannan is an innings-eating lefty that the Nationals may be willing to part with now that they have Jackson. Wandy Rodriguez may still be available from Houston, but a trade for Wandy would depend on how much of the money left of his contract the Astros would be willing to eat and how many prospects they ask for in return. Maybe one of these three, maybe someone else, but I still think the Sox will add an arm. Or they hope new manager Bobby Valentine’s experience in Japan will help increase the production from Daisuke Matsuzaka when he returns halfway through the year.

The bullpen should be set with Aceves, Mark Melancon, Bobby Jenks, Franklin Morales and Bailey as anchors. Jenks’s health may be an issue and I question whether he has the ability to pitch in any role other than closer. He was a good closer for years and I invest highly in the idea that once a closer always a closer. When you find that mentality where you can handle the pressure of the ninth inning, game on the line, it’s hard to pitch as well knowing that if you mess up, there’s still time. There’s less of an edge.

The majority of the Red Sox lineup remains the same. Adrian Gonzalez, who was very productive in his first season at Fenway, and the returning-from-injury Kevin Youkilis, who has a keen eye and above-average power at the plate as well as an all-or-nothing mentality defensively, will anchor the corners. Dustin “Laser Show” Pedroia, arguably the heart and soul of this Red Sox team, will continue to roam the second base side of the infield. The best position player in the American League last year, Jacoby “where did that power come from” Ellsbury will still be running down fly balls all over the outfield, though mostly in center.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia will take over as the veteran catcher of the staff (Kelly Shoppach may have more experience in the majors, but in terms of knowing these pitchers, Salty gets the edge as “veteran”). I think having one full year under his belt will benefit Salty tremendously. I think his offense will improve this year and his defense will continue to improve. And the best designated hitter in baseball, David Ortiz, will resume his role as clubhouse anchor and middle of the lineup behemoth.

There are some questions: which Carl Crawford will we see when he returns from his wrist injury? Will Cody Ross and Ryan Sweeney produce in right (and left while Crawford is out)? What, if anything, can we expect from Darnell McDonald and Ryan Kalish? And what will happen at short?

My answers, in order: if Crawford comes back trying to prove his contract was worth it, we will see another disappointing year, but if he counts last year as a loss and just plays with no expectations we could see a Tampa-like Crawford lurking in the shadow of the Green Monster. Ross and Sweeney will be looking to prove what each is worth. They are both relatively young and a good to great year in Boston could put them in line for a larger paycheck, whether he or elsewhere. McDonald won’t be asked to do much and will oblige with decent defensive and a bottom of the lineup bat whereas Kalish is battling his own injuries and I have doubts that he will be the right fielder of the future because he seems like another Jed Lowrie: tons of upside if he could just stay healthy. Marco Scutaro’s defense at short got a worse rap than it should have but it was far from good and so long as either Nick Punto or Mike Aviles’s bat produces then the defense will be more of the same. But if the bats don’t complement the defense, I expect that offensive production from short is scrapped in favor of Jose Iglesias’s stellar glove.

Punto or Aviles will back up the other and serve as a utility infielder which gives the Red Sox depth. Shoppach looks to be in line to give Salty a rest every couple of days. Ryan Lavarnway (warning, [further] bias alert! Lavarnway is my favorite prospect) should see more playing time this year and not just behind the plate. I see Lavarnway possibly transitioning to third eventually while filling in occasion as catcher as well as at first. With the likelihood of adding more interleague games beginning next season, this may be Ortiz’s final year in Boston. I know it’s sad to consider. If it is, a move to third would allow the Sox to fill the offensive void of losing Ortiz while adding to their defensive ability. Youk, who gives so much at third that it literally hurts, can become the most-of-the-time DH while being able to fill in at the corners without losing any defense. And Lavarnway, who proved in limited time last year that his bat is his biggest asset, would be afforded more plate appearances.

Bobby Valentine is the key and tweaks will be made along the way. I see this team winning 90 or so games. Making the playoffs will be extremely tough in a league that now boasts Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder, especially in a division that features two of the best teams on paper (the Yankees and Rays) and a third team on the cusp (Blue Jays). But new Yankees Michael Pineda—struggled in his few starts against the AL East—and Hiroki Kuroda may not be worth what they paid and the Rays are asking a lot from a terrific group of young pitchers and look to once again play above-expectation ball at most positions. The Red Sox could quietly sneak into the playoffs.

Last year, this team broke the hearts of Red Sox Nation and on paper the team looks more like it created new holes rather than filling the ones made evident last year. But this was a good team for the majority of last year and with the energy of new manager Bobby Valentine and a number of players looking to make us forget last year, this could be the year we’ve been waiting for.